Fanning the Flames with False Flags

Although secession is surely a drastic measure to take, as time goes on, it becomes more apparent that these claims are moving from mere conjecture to an actual possibility: over half of Danielle Smith voters support breaking away from Canada and nearly 30% of Albertans approve of the same. With the G7 summit behind us, Smith used the moment to spotlight Alberta’s oil and gas wealth to eager international players more than willing to cash in on the province’s resources. This begs the question: is Alberta really serious in their push for separatism and just how far can they go?

Bill 54 - lowering the threshold of citizen-based referendum votes from 20% to 10% - came in effect only in May. On paper, a modest change. In practice, this change stokes the Calgary flame of separation by rolling out the red carpet for divisive voices to split the country apart. 

But inflaming the rhetoric isn’t the same as lighting the match. Smith’s been adamant that she will pave the way for a minority of a minority of Canada’s population to spread their message of separation. For a Premier who once campaigned on autonomy, the threat of separation has become a useful lever, one that says “listen to us,” without yet pulling the plug.

Why the anger? Start with the numbers. Alberta ranks third in provincial GDP, produces nearly 60% of Canada’s oil, and pours billions into capital investment. Yet in many national conversations, on climate policy, energy infrastructure, equalization, it often feels like Alberta’s voice is muffled. The province contributes mightily to the federation, yet sees little return when federal dollars are divvied up. No wonder a quarter of Albertans say they don’t feel respected.

Still, the path to independence isn’t as clear-cut as some might hope. For starters, the federal government hasn’t exactly abandoned Alberta. Ottawa granted generous tax treatment for oil sands operators, carved out emission exemptions (89 megatonnes in 2023, 11 shy of the cap), and helped engineer an oil and gas boom that led to record profits. The federal government isn’t just taking from Alberta. It’s been helping to make Alberta rich.

Then there’s the money Alberta would leave on the table. In 2025 alone, the province is set to receive $8 billion from Canada Health and Social Transfers, half a billion more than the year prior. Add to that $265 million through the Canada Community-Building Fund and over $1 billion more pledged for housing and infrastructure. Walk away from Ottawa, and those lifelines disappear.

And socially? I'm not so sure many Albertans necessarily would feel at home in an independent Alberta. Canadian identity has been up in the air for quite some time, but Albertans are Canadians nonetheless. They’d already be in a tough bind losing out on support from other provinces, and staring down the eye of America’s domineering surrounding presence, a full secession could see a potential exodus of Albertans taking refuge in neighboring provinces just so that they can continue donning the Maple Leaf. Fair to say, secession may just need to take the back seat - for now.

Written By:

Joshua Skeen, Policy Strategist - Engage